UKRAINE — It is very difficult to explain what a person feels when they're awakened at 5 a.m. when a rocket explodes near their house.
That's exactly what I experienced February 24. The first thing I did was fill my car with gasoline. Then we bought a lot of products we thought we might need - medicines and household products, mainly.
I can say that, at the moment, my family is provided with resources for several months ahead.
However, I also understand how difficult it is now to ensure the normal operation of a farm under these conditions. I am an agricultural journalist in Ukraine, and my father is a farmer.
With grain grown on 72 percent of the area of Ukraine, that affects us all. And potentially many beyond our borders.
The coming spring
Much of the world is wondering: will Ukrainian farmers be able to sow grain this spring?
It's an important question for my country and the world.
Ukrainian grain normally supplies seven to ten percent of the world market. The well-being of people not only in Ukraine, but throughout the world, depends on the normal work of farmers in Ukraine.
At home, agriculture is the backbone of our society. Farms in Ukraine are socially important companies. In the provinces, these are the main employers for people.
In addition, farms ranging from 1,500 to 5,000 hectares often play the role of social and communal services.
They voluntarily, or within the framework of a social contract, allocate money for the repair of roads and communications, for schools, kindergartens and hospitals. Therefore, the well-being of local residents largely depends on the normal work of farmers.
This, in turn, depends on whether farmers can sow grain this spring, grow and harvest. The extending seeding season will play a role in that.
The sowing campaign in the southern regions of Ukraine sometimes begins in late February and early March, if the spring is early.
At this time, despite the cold, sunflowers are sown in the south to use the moisture in the soil. In early April, they begin to sow corn, sunflower and soybeans throughout Ukraine. This process ends in mid-May.
It's a long window, and it exists for two reasons. The first is the unpredictable weather conditions in recent decades. In March it can be very warm, and in May it can be very cold.
The second reason is the shortage of powerful tractors and large seeders. These machines are expensive, so farmers cannot buy enough of them.
Reason for hope
While the war has extracted a terrible human toll already, the soldiers of Ukraine have mounted a strong defence.
Russian troops, as I write this, control less that 15 percent of the territory of Ukraine, and approximately 70 percent of the country has not yet seen any military action.
If this situation continues in the future, then farmers in most of Ukraine will be able to sow grain. Taking into account the experience of 2014 in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, some fields will still be sown even in the combat zone. This is contained in the genetic code of the Ukrainian people - bread must be sown at any cost.
To explain this phenomenon, I will cite an old Ukrainian proverb: "Ivan dies, but sows rye."
That is, no matter what happens, you need to work and believe in the best.
However, there are also problems. Due to hostilities, there was a shortage of fuel. Many Ukrainian farmers have previously stockpiled diesel fuel at their bases, but not all. At the same time, fuel has become very expensive - already it costs 25 to 38 hryvnias per liter (C$1.08 to C$1.64). There's almost no fertilizer being imported, which has also caused an increase in prices. The story is very similar for pesticides and herbicides.
Therefore, I predict that most farmers will drastically reduce the cost of growing crops. There was a lot of rain and snow in Ukraine last autumn and winter, and the moisture reserve in the soil is now large. We have very fertile soils, so one year you can work with a minimum amount of fertilizer or no fertilizer at all. The harvest will be lower, but this is not the most important thing now.
Aiding military
The fact is that the main efforts of Ukrainian farmers today are focused on helping the army as much as possible and strengthening the country's defense. I have many farmer friends on Facebook. Almost all of them are now allocating money to help soldiers and civilians.
For example my friend Yuri, who works in the region south of Kyiv, produces canned meat and vegetables and refuels military equipment. Ukrainian farmers also buy helmets, body armour, weapons, and medicines. In addition, they organize the production of camouflage nets, anti-tank structures and other necessary things.
Almost every agricultural company has its own equipment repair base. This was very useful in 2014 during the first Russian invasion, and even more important today. Ukrainian farmers repair military vehicles for free, which allows them to be sent to the front faster.
Not only the farmers themselves help the army, but also their workers and neighbours. So, today many people are doing everything possible to win: donate blood, weave nets, make sharp "hedgehogs" against the aggressor's trucks.
Delayed development
Once the immediate crisis passes, there will be the lingering effects of this war on the agriculture sector in Ukraine.
Our agriculture industry has been undergoing a wave of change, which has been derailed by the war.
Last year Ukraine allowed the purchase and sale of land. However, most of the fields are still on lease. Their owners are residents of villages and small towns, each of which is the owner of a small plot of land from three to ten acres.
These small plots are rented by large agricultural holdings and farmers. Ukraine has a very diverse structure of the agricultural market. The country has large companies that grow grain on an area of hundreds of thousands of hectares, as well as medium-sized companies from 1,000 to 5,000 hectares. In addition, there are tens of thousands of farmers who grow grain in areas ranging from 5 to 500 hectares.
In a good year, a farmer in my native Cherkasy region in central Ukraine can get an average yield of 12 tons of corn per hectare, 9 tons of wheat and over 4 tons of rapeseed. At the same time, he invests in land at least half the amount of money than a Canadian farmer. However, weather conditions in Ukraine are unstable and there is a severe drought about once every four years. In this case, farmers receive big losses. In addition, in the dry southern and eastern regions, farmers grow lower yields. Sunflower, winter wheat and barley are mainly sown there.
However, the rapid development of agricultural technologies in Ukraine over the past 15 years, the use of new European and North American agricultural machinery have allowed Ukrainian farmers to make high profits. This money is invested in further development, in particular in grain storage, irrigation systems, and logistics.
Each farmer wants to get the maximum profit from the grown grain and creates a special infrastructure for this.
Many of these plans were disrupted by the war.
One thing that is appreciated here in Ukraine is the support of Canada and its people during this time. It is important, and it has already saved many lives. Ukraine will not forget this.
Ihor Pavliuk is an agricultural journalist who lives and works in Ukraine.
