REGINA - In the end, most pollsters blew it in predicting the results of Saskatchewan’s provincial election.
Public opinion research companies were the biggest losers of the election, as the Saskatchewan Party defied predictions of an NDP win and came through with a majority government, with 34 seats to the NDP's 27 as of Wednesday morning’s ballot counting. The margin in favor of the Sask Party in the popular vote was 13.5 per cent — 53 per cent for the Sask Party to 39.5 per cent for the NDP.
These actual vote numbers proved embarrassing to several pollsters who had the NDP up between three to five per cent in the final days of the campaign in Saskatchewan.
Among those who got it wrong was Insightrix, whose poll had the NDP up 50 to 45 per cent in the final week. Mainstreet also had the NDP up, 49-45 per cent, although they did hold out the possibility of the Sask. Party ending up with the most seats.
Liaison Strategies and Forum Research also had the NDP up in the final days, leading 49 to 46 per cent, while Research Co.’s final poll had the NDP up 48 - 46 per cent after their earlier poll had the NDP down by eight points.
The one pollster that had the Saskatchewan Party ahead in the final days was Cardinal Research, who had them up 49 to 43 per cent — a result that came closest to being within the margin of error.
In a post on the X platform, they made clear they were pleased.
“We're happy with the results of our polling for the Saskatchewan election! We had the SKP at 49.4% and the NDP at 43.4%, with a margin of error of 3.5% We were also the only ones with the SKP leading among pollsters who released a final poll before election day,” they posted.
Other respected pollsters also missed the mark earlier in the campaign. The respected pollster Janet Brown, usually known for high levels of accuracy during recent Alberta elections, released a poll suggesting the Sask Party’s lead had been reduced to five points.
It would prove well short of the actual margin of 13.5 points. Still, that poll prompted the NDP to crow about momentum in a news release, stating the polling was “showing the Saskatchewan NDP is gaining ground on Scott Moe and the Sask. Party and the No. 1 issue on the minds of voters is the state of healthcare in the province.”
When asked about Brown’s poll during a campaign event in Regina Wascana Plains, Scott Moe pointed out it had been commissioned by CUPE.
“Polls are polls,” Moe said, saying his party was paying attention to the polls “culminating at 8 pm on Oct. 28.”
After the most recent string of positive numbers last week, the NDP sent out more news releases which pointed to the polls as evidence of momentum.
“Carla Beck’s message of change is resonating with voters in constituencies the NDP hasn’t held in 20 years,” they stated. “Scott Moe lost the debate and released an out-of-touch platform that will lead to further cuts to hospitals and classrooms at a time when they can least afford them. With Monday’s election fast approaching, Saskatchewan voters have made it clear that it’s time for change.”
But during the final Regina campaign stop for the Saskatchewan Party on Friday, party officials did not appear worried about the seemingly concerning poll numbers.
When asked about the numbers from both Insightrix and Mainstreet, Moe made it known what he thought of them.
“I agree with John Diefenbaker on polls, and he's very fond of dogs, because dogs know what to do with poles.”
Moe also said the poll they were paying attention to was the one being conducted during Voting Week and on Election Day Oct. 28. “That’s the poll where Saskatchewan people are going to decide and make the choice on what this province is going to look like with respect to the opportunity for that brighter future that we believe the Saskatchewan Party plan does provide.”
