OTTAWA — Ottawa's movers and shakers are watching anxiously as results start to trickle in for the U.S. presidential election, as the federal Liberals say they're in a better position to manage trade negotiations with the next American president than during the term of former president Donald Trump.
U.S. voters are choosing between starkly different visions for their country's future with either Trump or Vice-President Kamala Harris. Whoever wins the White House will be in charge when the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is reviewed in 2026.
The "Team Canada" approach the Liberal government launched when negotiating with the first Trump administration is already back in play.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said her government is ready to work with premiers, mayors, the business sector and unions to look out for Canadian interests.
She also said she's been speaking with other foreign ministers and world leaders about how to work with the next president.
"So we have an approach that is very broad and we are very unique in the world. We have the strongest and, I think, most important relationship as a country with the U.S.," Joly said.
Amid a fraught political atmosphere in the United States, there are worries about politically motivated violence in the wake of the results. Joly said she will not address hypothetical scenarios, but has been in communication with American counterparts on this issue.
"I've had many conversations with both Republicans and also Democrats, and I'm assured that there will be strong national security in the U.S.," Joly told reporters.
Steps from Parliament Hill, dozens of political staffers, lobbyists, diplomats and MPs gathered at the Metropolitain Brasserie, a bistro, to take in the results.
Icelandic ambassador to Canada Hlynur Gudjonsson said his country is watching closely amid concerns about how Trump, if elected, would handle the NATO military alliance.
"Kamala Harris would be very happy if the Icelanders were voting for her," he said. "That's case in Europe I think in general."
Gudjonsson said Iceland was impressed by how Canada handled the Trump presidency, and he added that he expects his country will fare well regardless of who wins Tuesday.
"Either way it goes, we are a trusted partner, we are an ally to the U.S. as we are with Canada, so I don't see any significant changes," he said.
Liberal MP Jean Yip said she was nervous about the results.
"I hope for the best; we keep our fingers crossed that it will be alright," she said.
"We just want the best president possible, for Americans and for Canadians," she said, without specifying who that would be.
Gary Keller, who was chief of staff to Conservative former foreign minister John Baird, said he was anxious about the "knife-edge" election.
"There's a lot of nervous energy in the room tonight," he said. "This one has so much potential impact on our economy, our society."
Keller noted that both Harris and Trump are proposing policies that could be turbulent for Canada's trade with its largest partner.
"Canadian businesses just have to be prepared for some challenges over the next four years, no matter who wins," he said.
American Chamber of Commerce in Canada president Rick Tachuk had the same assessment, noting that policies from both candidates could disrupt trade. He said a number of issues on everything from energy and defence to digital services regulation could also strain trade.
"There's a whole host of issues that that are critical, that we need to resolve in part before we get to the CUSMA review in 2026," he said.
Tachuk said Harris would largely continue Biden policies that Trump would disrupt, but he said races for the House of Representatives will greatly impact the bilateral relationship.
For Canada, an impact on trade is the most immediate concern, but several cabinet ministers say they've been laying the groundwork for any outcome for months.
Trump and Harris have both campaigned on protectionist policies, which could pose a significant threat to Canada's economy.
Trump has pledged to bring in a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff — something the Canadian Chamber of Commerce believes could cost the Canadian economy around $30 billion per year.
In 2020, Harris was one of just 10 senators who voted against the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. She said at the time it didn't appropriately address climate change but more recently charged that it doesn't protect American jobs.
Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the goal over the last several months has been to define Canada as a critical and strategic partner, particularly on economic security, as opposed to just a friendly neighbour to the north.
"The focus of our friends in the United States is national security. National security and economic security are one. I think there is a better understanding today that the strategic relationship that we have is serving North America's national security," Champagne said.
The two presidential candidates also differ significantly on their approach to security, in particular when it comes to the NATO alliance.
Trump has been highly critical of NATO allies — particularly those, like Canada, that are not meeting the agreed-upon spending target — accusing them of failing to pull their weight and calling the alliance "obsolete."
Canada does not plan to reach the target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence until at least 2032.
Harris has said her administration would uphold mutual defence pacts and continue steadfast support for Ukraine.
Defence Minister Bill Blair said he believes either administration will recognize the work Canada is doing to boost defence spending.
"It takes time to build new battleships, it takes time to build the new submarines we're going to require, and deliver the airplanes we need," Blair said on his way into Tuesday's cabinet meeting.
"I have great confidence in the institutions of the United States, including our relationship with the State Department and their military."
Joly said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has experience dealing with three different U.S. administrations over the last decade.
The government has also built relationships with both Republicans and Democrats in preparation for whoever takes over the White House.
It's not a given that a Trudeau-led government will represent Canada in the trade talks, however. There is a possibility that a precarious Parliament could trigger a snap election before the negotiations start in earnest.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said on social media Tuesday a Conservative government would "drive a hard bargain" with Washington on softwood lumber and buy-American policies.
In question period, Poilievre attacked the Liberals for failing to get a deal with the U.S. to end softwood lumber tariffs and accused the Liberals of capitulating to the Americans during the last round of trade negotiations.
"We stood up against (Donald Trump) when he wanted to renegotiate NAFTA and it was the Conservatives, including Stephen Harper, who were encouraging us to back down and not offend the Americans," Trudeau said in response in French.
"On the contrary, we stood up for ourselves we protected supply management, protected steel and aluminum workers, we protected jobs right across this country."
David Cohen, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, said he sees the trade relationship continuing with little disruption no matter who wins the election.
"I’ve not heard any president in my lifetime, and I’ve certainly not heard either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris say, we want to blow up this $3.4 billion-a-day trade relationship that exists between the United States and Canada," Cohen said.
"So, the Team Canada approach that Canada’s been using, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, is a powerful outreach mechanism which is useful to doing outreach and communication with a variety of stakeholders and constituents who all have a role to play in nurturing and growing the U.S.-Canada relationship independent of the presidential election."
Cohen added that Canada is the biggest trading partner for 36 states and he doubts any administration would want to jeopardize the millions of jobs tied to that cross-border trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
Laura Osman, David Baxter and Dylan Robertson, The Canadian Press
