MONTREAL — Trucking companies have begun to halt shipments, mull layoffs and scramble for new routes as tariffs — and their on-again, off-again implementation — wreak havoc on cross-border trade.
The lead-up to U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports as well as retaliatory duties from Canada that took effect Tuesday prompted a surge in deliveries over the past two months as shippers raced to stock up on inventory before the deadline.
That boost — exports to the United States rose 7.5 per cent month-over-month in January to reach a record $58.2 billion, according to Statistics Canada — has brought on a subsequent lull that a drawn-out trade war would exacerbate, said Eassons Transport Group CEO Trevor Bent.
“February was definitely gangbusters," he said of the company's food shipments ranging from fish to pies and potatoes.
"There's certainly going to be an impact," Bent continued, referring to the tariffs a day after they came into force. "There’s folks cancelling loads to the U.S. right now."
He said the Nova Scotia-based outfit, which draws nearly 20 per cent of its sales from American distributors and grocers, will be forced to make layoffs if business continues to stall.
“For every million dollars in topline revenue before fuel, it’s roughly four trucks and six employees to take care of that,” he said, referring to prospective job cuts at the 300-tractor fleet.
In a climbdown Thursday afternoon, Trump announced he would again pause some tariffs on Canadian cargo, this time until April 2. Five weeks earlier, he pushed back until March the start date of duties first slated to kick in on Feb. 4.
Two hours after Trump's announcement Thursday, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said in a social media post that Canada would delay its second round of retaliatory duties on $125 billion worth of American goods until April 2, "while we continue to work for the removal of all tariffs."
Canada's first round of tariffs applies to $30 billion worth of U.S. products, from appliances to orange juice, peanut butter, pulp and paper. They remain in place.
Trump has dangled the 25 per cent tariff threat over Canada and Mexico since shortly after his election in late November.
On top of White House whims, the fate of truckers rests on decisions by shippers and producers. They're the ones who decide whether to put a freeze on orders.
They also now decide whether it's worth the 25 per cent markup to ship products past March, with carriers and many sellers in no position to absorb the bulk of that tariff cost.
“There are no margins to concede,” said Mark Seymour, CEO of Kriska Transportation Group.
“Our customers are manufacturers, whose customers are consumers. So consumer behaviour has a lot to do with what we do," he added, calling the impact of a prolonged trade fight "profound."
The Ontario-based company sees 800 trucks cross the border daily carrying paper, food and auto parts. About 95 per cent of Kriska's $350-million annual revenue stems from shipments to and from the U.S., Seymour said.
"I hope and pray that it doesn't cascade into a re-engineering of our business. And that could mean a loss of jobs or layoffs," he said, while stressing that no cuts were planned at the moment.
"We can't predict the unpredictable."
Sweeping tariffs could bring on a recession and boost inflation within the first year of a trade war, the Bank of Canada and numerous economists have predicted.
Truckers and the broader shipping industry would feel that downturn directly.
"We're heading towards a dip, as consumer confidence starts to dip," said Julie Gascon, CEO of the Montreal Port Authority, referring to container shipments.
Shipments by road accounted for 52 per cent of Canada's import value in 2023, and 40 per cent of its exports, with that trade flow almost entirely to and from the U.S., according to Statistics Canada. Roughly 70 per cent of trade in goods between Canada and the U.S. moves by truck.
The Canadian Trucking Alliance said this week customers have been cancelling orders, and many fleets surveyed in Ontario by the industry group reported recent or imminent job cuts.
“Widespread tariffs on our customers’ freight to U.S. suppliers and consumers will have shocking effects on our membership and the overall supply chain,” said president Stephen Laskowski in a release.
He has called for a tax relief program for the sector, the immediate removal of carbon pricing and a reduction in the federal tax on diesel.
While Trump's tariffs are temporarily waived, the instability spawned by frequent, wild swings in trade policy remain.
"With uncertainty comes lots of things: currency fluctuations, decreased buying power, so many different trickle effects that can happen here," said Lisa McEwan, co-owner of Toronto-based Hemisphere Freight & Brokerage Services.
"It's all very dangerous."
One constant exemption offers a faint upbeat note. Shipments valued at US$800 or less that are brought to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico would enter duty-free under the so-called de minimis rule, despite any tariffs.
"That at least allows the free flow of goods of smaller items," McEwan said.
"So it's not a complete disaster, I guess."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 6, 2025.
Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press
