The regular season is over and here come the Lions.
The Roughriders wrapped up their regular season with a relatively meaningless 30-26 loss to the Edmonton Eskimos on Nov. 2. Quarterback Darian Durant and running back Kory Sheets took the afternoon off and watched the offence hum to the tune of 514 yards.
Enough of that, though. It's time to look ahead to this weekend's playoff game with the B.C. Lions, set for this Sunday at 3:30.
The best predictor of the future is often the past, so let's start by looking at the three games the two teams have played this season. The Riders won the season series 2-1 and outscored the Lions 66-31 over the course of the three games. The Riders' two wins were both blowouts, which is always a good sign; winning by a lot means more than just squeaking by.
The game will feature two of the best running backs in the CFL, Kory Sheets and the Lions' Andrew Harris - they finished second and third, respectively, on the rushing leaderboard this season. Look for the Lions to try and establish Harris early to keep the potent Riders offence off the field.
I wouldn't be surprised if this game is decided when the Riders have the ball, because that will feature a great offence against a great defence. Saskatchewan had one of the best offences in the CFL this season (especially during the first few weeks), but they finished under their average for total yards in all three games against the Lions.
The reason? B.C. finished with the league's best defence, allowing just less than 340 total yards per game. They finished in the top two against both the pass and the run, so there aren't any weak links in their armour.
Then, of course, there is Travis Lulay, the proverbial X factor. The CFL's Most Outstanding Player in 2011, Lulay returned to the B.C. lineup last week against Calgary, throwing for 54 yards and running for a one-yard touchdown after missing six weeks with a shoulder injury.
If Lulay is healthy enough to start on Sunday, it takes the ceiling of this Lions team to a whole new level. Lulay posted a 95.0 quarterback rating this season, well ahead of the ratings of backups Buck Pierce and Thomas DeMarco. He is an established star and his health might be the most important factor in this game.
If I were a betting man (and I sometimes am), I would take the Riders, but I don't feel great about it. Both the best and worst thing about a one-game playoff is that it injects a huge amount of randomness and luck into the equation. The best team doesn't always win. A fluke fumble here, a tipped interception there and the outcome of a game can change dramatically. The Riders are probably the better team, but that guarantees nothing. That's the best thing about sports, even if it sometimes comes back to bite our favourite team.
