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Opinion: There are no winners in a trade war

A trade war will impact Americans, especially those living in the Pacific territories, even though they are thousands of kilometres away from the Continental US.
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US President Trump has floated the idea of making Canada a 51st state and annexing Greenland. You might say don’t take Trump seriously on every statement or anything he says whenever he’s in front of the cameras, but this has gained support from some of his lackeys in the GOP-controlled Legislature, conservative news media outlets Fox News and NEWSMAX, and from his MAGA-diehard supporters mostly coming from southern red states.

Discussions on social media, whether some accounts are actual persons or paid trolls, have been tense, leading to name-calling, shaming, and a sprinkle of “colourful” language in the mix. I’m not sure if Canadians who are saying they are open to joining the US, especially in Alberta, where support, as they say, to secede from Canada is increasing.

Geographically, the US is fourth among the countries based on land area behind Russia, Canada, and China. Mainland US refers to all states connected in the North American land, excluding the State of Hawaii and the five territories (American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands), insular areas, and other outlying islands near the mainland.

Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are Southeast of Florida. At the same time, American Samoa is the Southwest of Hawaii, and the Mariana Islands—the CNMI and Guam—are in the Western Pacific and almost 9,500 kilometres from California. The CNMI and Guam share the motto “Where America’s Day Begins” for being the Westernmost location from the US based on the international dateline.

Yep, the US land stretches way beyond Hawaii in the Pacific, with the territories of the CNMI and Guam being part of their geopolitical and strategic importance in their presence in the region. They are the US’ first line of defence, with Joint Region Marianas’ headquarters at the Naval Base. Guam also has the Andersen Air Force Base and Marine Corps Base Camp Blaz, aside from having a military presence in South Korea and Japan.

These military installations show the US military’s might and strength, particularly in naval warfare and controlling the seas, in case the trade war intensifies, and China continues with its ambition to gain complete control of the West Philippine Sea and take over independent Taiwan, which they consider as their province.

You might say all the information I shared can be read online, but I used to work on the island of Saipan before my family moved to Saskatoon in 2019 as a full-time reporter with the now-defunct Saipan Tribune and formerly with the Marianas Variety, while also contributing news analyses and business features with the Pacific Island News and the Marianas Business Journal. For the Saipan Tribune and the Pacific Island News, I was assigned to write stories on defence, immigration and labour.

I had the chance to cover US war exercises with Australian and Japanese troops on the island of Tinian, where the B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay took off carrying the atom bombs that were dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the final days of World War II.

For me, by the looks of it, Trump wants to flex the military and economic might of the US. He is using tariffs as leverage, but at the price of alienating their long-time allies, mainly European nations. However, his threat of a trade war will impact Americans, especially those living in the Pacific territories, as they are thousands of kilometres away from the Continental US and rely mostly on goods and products, including gasoline, imported from the mainland or nearby countries like China.

I can’t help but think of my friends and former co-workers who are still in the CNMI as prices increase while their salaries remain the same—they follow the US minimum wage of $7.50 per hour. Recently, my friend posted a photo of a dozen eggs costing her almost $16 (US). The CNMI and Guam mostly rely on tourism as their primary industry, with visitors from China, Japan and South Korea. They also rely on federal aid from FEMA if they are hit by strong typhoons and other grants to fund their programs.

Now, what will Trump’s White House’s next move be? Will they continue to play the game of who blinks first? Or, renegotiate with their trade partners like Canada and reach a middle ground where everybody wins. As most economists and business analysts say, there are no winners in a trade war.

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