Facebook may seem like a strange place to find some rather optimistic news regarding the future of farming, but just the other day I happened upon a video clip via the social media site which would make any farmer smile.
The short, three-minute clip was from The Globe and Mail’s ‘Inside the Market’, with Paul Waldie. On this particular clip Waldie has as his guest Canadian economist Jeff Rubin. Rubin, a former chief economist at CIBC World Markets, is also the author of the recent book ‘The Carbon Bubble’.
In the short clip Rubin talks about how climate change, in particular the trend to a warmer climate may have some rather significant upside for Canadian agricultural producers.
Rubin suggests the Canadian Prairies by being a northern latitude region will see average temperatures climb more significantly than the global averages. He said if the temperature averages rise two to three degrees, the growing season expands four to five weeks which not only increases yield potential but expands what crops can be grown here.
As it stands Canada is the eighth largest export of agriculture products. With climate change Rubin said the country could become number one or two in terms of exports.
By that point I was intrigued, so I went searching out a bit more on Rubin’s book. At Amazon.com I found that the book suggests the current vision of Canada’s economic future by government is off point.
“Since 2006 and the election of the first Harper government, the vision of Canada’s future as an energy superpower has driven the political agenda, as well as the fast-paced development of Alberta’s oil sands and the push for more pipelines across the country to bring that bitumen to market. Anyone who objects is labeled a dreamer, or worse -- an environmentalist: someone who puts the health of the planet ahead of the economic survival of their neighbours,” noted material on the book ‘The Carbon Bubble’.
“In The Carbon Bubble, Jeff Rubin compellingly shows how Harper’s economic vision for the country is dead wrong. Changes in energy markets in the US -- where domestic production is booming while demand for oil is shrinking -- are quickly turning Harper’s dream into an economic nightmare. The same trade and investment ties to oil that pushed the Canadian dollar to record highs are now pulling it down, and the Toronto Stock Exchange, one of the most carbon-intensive stock indexes in the world -- with over 25 per cent market capitalization in oil and gas alone -- will be increasingly exposed to the rest of the world’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
“Rubin argues that there is a lifeline to a better future. The very climate change that will leave much of the country’s carbon unburnable could at the same time make some of Canada’s other resource assets more valuable; our water and our land. In tomorrow’s economy, he argues, Canada won’t be an energy superpower, but it has the makings of one of the world’s great breadbaskets. And in the global climate that the world’s carbon emissions are inexorably creating, food will soon be a lot more valuable than oil.”
While obviously it comes down to which vision you choose to think has the greatest clarity, but from a farm perspective Rubin’s view has to be good news.
Certainly the long term vision of many has been that ultimately food in a world of growing population will become the key commodity, right beside safe drinking water. The question of how the world pays for that food at rates high enough to cover production costs of course remains another question.
But Rubin is an optimist and suggests farmland as an investment, while solid today, will only get better.
Rubin said the west still has the potential to be the economic driver of Canada, but not because of oil reserves, but rather because of agricultural production, because in a world of climate change food will become more valuable than oil.
While climate change has the potential to disrupt our world in ways most shy away from even contemplating, farmers here may find a silver lining, at least is Rubin’s crystal ball is on the right channel.
